Qatar's assignment to Group B alongside Switzerland, Canada, and Bosnia and Herzegovina stands as the dominant factor behind the 82% implied probability of a group-stage exit on prediction markets. The squad, built primarily around domestic talent and featuring forwards like Almoez Ali, enters the expanded 48-team tournament with limited depth and recent qualifying results that include a 3-0 loss to Uzbekistan alongside narrow wins over Iran and the UAE to secure qualification. Trader consensus reflects these realities, assigning just 11.5% to a Round of 32 finish and single-digit figures to deeper runs, consistent with Qatar's 2022 group-stage exit as hosts and their status as rank outsiders in pre-tournament assessments.