Recent primary election data shows elevated Democratic participation across multiple states, including record or multi-year highs in California, Texas, Michigan, and Wisconsin, alongside lower relative Republican turnout, reflecting an enthusiasm gap tied to the party's opposition status in the Trump administration. This dynamic, combined with expanded mail and early voting access and modest growth in youth registration, has shifted trader expectations toward totals exceeding the 108 million House votes recorded in 2022. At the same time, the absence of a presidential contest on the ballot, historical midterm drop-off patterns, and shifts in Republican coalition demographics introduce countervailing downward pressure. The resulting market clustering around 115-125 million votes captures ongoing uncertainty over whether base mobilization and structural factors will sustain elevated participation through November or revert closer to traditional off-year levels.