Former U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl leads trader consensus at 67.5% implied probability to win the Alabama 1st Congressional District Republican primary, buoyed by name recognition from his prior service and positioning under a Republican-drawn map cleared by the Supreme Court's May 11 ruling vacating a lower court block. This decision has clouded the May 19 vote outcome, potentially voiding results and triggering a special primary redo for districts including AL-01 amid candidate shifts, such as State Rep. Rhett Marques eyeing AL-02. Former Air Force Major Austin Sidwell's 29.8% share reflects veteran appeal and fundraising momentum in polls showing a fragmented field, with late April data at Marques 22%, Carl 20%. Marques trails at 21.5% as uncertainty favors incumbency-like advantages ahead of resolution.