Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a strong position in the Arkansas Senate race against Democrat Hallie Shoffner ahead of the November 3 general election. Arkansas's partisan lean and Cotton's primary win with over 81% of the vote reinforce expectations of a Republican victory, reflected in trader pricing that favors GOP margins above 30 points while assigning Democrat wins only 25.5% implied probability. Recent super PAC advertising exceeding $730,000 opposing Shoffner in July highlights efforts to solidify the advantage. Limited recent polling and the state's consistent electoral patterns keep exact margin outcomes closely contested among traders. Factors that could widen separation include shifts in voter turnout among key blocs, national political developments, or additional independent expenditures before Election Day.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयारिपब्लिकन 40%+ 43%
रिपब्लिकन 20-25% 41%
रिपब्लिकन 5-10% 40%
रिपब्लिकन 0-5% 39%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन 40%+
43%
रिपब्लिकन 35-40%
37%
रिपब्लिकन 30-35%
37%
रिपब्लिकन 25-30%
36%
रिपब्लिकन 20-25%
41%
रिपब्लिकन 15-20%
37%
रिपब्लिकन 10-15%
38%
रिपब्लिकन 5-10%
40%
रिपब्लिकन 0-5%
39%
डेमोक्रेट जीतते हैं
26%
रिपब्लिकन 40%+ 43%
रिपब्लिकन 20-25% 41%
रिपब्लिकन 5-10% 40%
रिपब्लिकन 0-5% 39%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन 40%+
$0 वॉल्यूम
43%
रिपब्लिकन 35-40%
$0 वॉल्यूम
37%
रिपब्लिकन 30-35%
$0 वॉल्यूम
37%
रिपब्लिकन 25-30%
$0 वॉल्यूम
36%
रिपब्लिकन 20-25%
$0 वॉल्यूम
41%
रिपब्लिकन 15-20%
$0 वॉल्यूम
37%
रिपब्लिकन 10-15%
$0 वॉल्यूम
38%
रिपब्लिकन 5-10%
$0 वॉल्यूम
40%
रिपब्लिकन 0-5%
$0 वॉल्यूम
39%
डेमोक्रेट जीतते हैं
$41 वॉल्यूम
26%
The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a strong position in the Arkansas Senate race against Democrat Hallie Shoffner ahead of the November 3 general election. Arkansas's partisan lean and Cotton's primary win with over 81% of the vote reinforce expectations of a Republican victory, reflected in trader pricing that favors GOP margins above 30 points while assigning Democrat wins only 25.5% implied probability. Recent super PAC advertising exceeding $730,000 opposing Shoffner in July highlights efforts to solidify the advantage. Limited recent polling and the state's consistent electoral patterns keep exact margin outcomes closely contested among traders. Factors that could widen separation include shifts in voter turnout among key blocs, national political developments, or additional independent expenditures before Election Day.
The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 4, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$41समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 4, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a strong position in the Arkansas Senate race against Democrat Hallie Shoffner ahead of the November 3 general election. Arkansas's partisan lean and Cotton's primary win with over 81% of the vote reinforce expectations of a Republican victory, reflected in trader pricing that favors GOP margins above 30 points while assigning Democrat wins only 25.5% implied probability. Recent super PAC advertising exceeding $730,000 opposing Shoffner in July highlights efforts to solidify the advantage. Limited recent polling and the state's consistent electoral patterns keep exact margin outcomes closely contested among traders. Factors that could widen separation include shifts in voter turnout among key blocs, national political developments, or additional independent expenditures before Election Day.
The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$41समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 4, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a strong position in the Arkansas Senate race against Democrat Hallie Shoffner ahead of the November 3 general election. Arkansas's partisan lean and Cotton's primary win with over 81% of the vote reinforce expectations of a Republican victory, reflected in trader pricing that favors GOP margins above 30 points while assigning Democrat wins only 25.5% implied probability. Recent super PAC advertising exceeding $730,000 opposing Shoffner in July highlights efforts to solidify the advantage. Limited recent polling and the state's consistent electoral patterns keep exact margin outcomes closely contested among traders. Factors that could widen separation include shifts in voter turnout among key blocs, national political developments, or additional independent expenditures before Election Day.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासंबंधित
क्या रिपब्लिकन पार्टी का उम्मीदवार 2026 के अलबामा सीनेट चुनाव में 25%-30% के अंतर से जीतेगा?
40%
हाँ
क्या रिपब्लिकन पार्टी का उम्मीदवार 2026 टेनेसी सीनेट चुनाव में 45% या उससे अधिक जीत हासिल करेगा?
41%
हाँ
क्या रिपब्लिकन पार्टी का उम्मीदवार 2026 ओक्लाहोमा सीनेट चुनाव में 45% या उससे अधिक वोटों से जीतेंगे?
41%
हाँ
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न