Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 98% implied probability as the top AI model on the May 16 Chatbot Arena leaderboard under style control off conditions, driven by its commanding 1502 Elo rating from the latest LMSYS evaluations—edging out Claude Opus 4.7 (thinking) at 1501 and dominating the top three spots. Anthropic's recent Opus 4.6 release in February 2026 showcased superior reasoning and agentic capabilities in blind crowdsourced battles, with "thinking" mode enhancing step-by-step deliberation without stylistic biases. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects sustained benchmark leadership amid tight competition from GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Realistic challenges include overnight vote swings or an unexpected model update, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 98.6%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
Other <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$28,463 वॉल्यूम
$28,463 वॉल्यूम
16 मई, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
99%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
1%
Other
1%
claude-opus-4-6
1%
gemini-3-pro
<1%
gpt-5.5-high
<1%
muse-spark
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
<1%
claude-opus-4-7
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 98.6%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
Other <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$28,463 वॉल्यूम
$28,463 वॉल्यूम
16 मई, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$7,972 वॉल्यूम
99%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$4,808 वॉल्यूम
1%
Other
$2,381 वॉल्यूम
1%
claude-opus-4-6
$1,988 वॉल्यूम
1%
gemini-3-pro
$1,475 वॉल्यूम
<1%
gpt-5.5-high
$2,605 वॉल्यूम
<1%
muse-spark
$1,218 वॉल्यूम
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,152 वॉल्यूम
<1%
claude-opus-4-7
$4,863 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 98% implied probability as the top AI model on the May 16 Chatbot Arena leaderboard under style control off conditions, driven by its commanding 1502 Elo rating from the latest LMSYS evaluations—edging out Claude Opus 4.7 (thinking) at 1501 and dominating the top three spots. Anthropic's recent Opus 4.6 release in February 2026 showcased superior reasoning and agentic capabilities in blind crowdsourced battles, with "thinking" mode enhancing step-by-step deliberation without stylistic biases. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects sustained benchmark leadership amid tight competition from GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Realistic challenges include overnight vote swings or an unexpected model update, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$28,463समाप्ति तिथि
16 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 98% implied probability as the top AI model on the May 16 Chatbot Arena leaderboard under style control off conditions, driven by its commanding 1502 Elo rating from the latest LMSYS evaluations—edging out Claude Opus 4.7 (thinking) at 1501 and dominating the top three spots. Anthropic's recent Opus 4.6 release in February 2026 showcased superior reasoning and agentic capabilities in blind crowdsourced battles, with "thinking" mode enhancing step-by-step deliberation without stylistic biases. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects sustained benchmark leadership amid tight competition from GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Realistic challenges include overnight vote swings or an unexpected model update, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$28,463समाप्ति तिथि
16 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 98% implied probability as the top AI model on the May 16 Chatbot Arena leaderboard under style control off conditions, driven by its commanding 1502 Elo rating from the latest LMSYS evaluations—edging out Claude Opus 4.7 (thinking) at 1501 and dominating the top three spots. Anthropic's recent Opus 4.6 release in February 2026 showcased superior reasoning and agentic capabilities in blind crowdsourced battles, with "thinking" mode enhancing step-by-step deliberation without stylistic biases. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects sustained benchmark leadership amid tight competition from GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Realistic challenges include overnight vote swings or an unexpected model update, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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