California voters face Proposition 37 on the November 3, 2026 ballot, a citizen initiative that would authorize the California Housing Finance Agency to issue up to $25 billion in revenue bonds for second-mortgage down payment assistance on qualified new homes. Eligible buyers, defined as state residents earning at or below 200% of area median income, would need to contribute at least 3% equity. Early PPIC polling from May 2026 showed roughly 53% support among likely voters, aligning closely with trader consensus near 59%. The measure qualified for the ballot in April after signature collection and draws backing from real estate groups, labor unions, and former Senate Majority Leader Bob Hertzberg, with no organized opposition reported through mid-2026. Persistent statewide housing affordability pressures and the program's self-funding structure via participant repayments underpin the modest probability edge in current market pricing.