Market-implied odds strongly favor a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate increase at the June 11, 2026, meeting, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent response to April euro-area HICP inflation rising to 3.0 percent amid energy price spikes from Middle East tensions. After holding the policy rate steady at 2.00 percent on April 30, policymakers highlighted risks of second-round effects and signaled readiness for tightening, with money markets now pricing roughly 75 basis points of cumulative hikes through year-end. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1 percent and resilient but cooling labor costs introduce some caution, yet the consensus for a modest June move remains anchored by forward-looking inflation concerns ahead of the next data releases.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 85%
No change 13.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,353 वॉल्यूम
$275,353 वॉल्यूम
11 जून, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
14%
25 bps Increase
85%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 85%
No change 13.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,353 वॉल्यूम
$275,353 वॉल्यूम
11 जून, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$54,094 वॉल्यूम
<1%
25 bps decrease
$43,932 वॉल्यूम
<1%
No change
$52,213 वॉल्यूम
14%
25 bps Increase
$72,057 वॉल्यूम
85%
50+ bps increase
$53,209 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Market-implied odds strongly favor a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate increase at the June 11, 2026, meeting, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent response to April euro-area HICP inflation rising to 3.0 percent amid energy price spikes from Middle East tensions. After holding the policy rate steady at 2.00 percent on April 30, policymakers highlighted risks of second-round effects and signaled readiness for tightening, with money markets now pricing roughly 75 basis points of cumulative hikes through year-end. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1 percent and resilient but cooling labor costs introduce some caution, yet the consensus for a modest June move remains anchored by forward-looking inflation concerns ahead of the next data releases.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$275,353समाप्ति तिथि
11 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Market-implied odds strongly favor a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate increase at the June 11, 2026, meeting, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent response to April euro-area HICP inflation rising to 3.0 percent amid energy price spikes from Middle East tensions. After holding the policy rate steady at 2.00 percent on April 30, policymakers highlighted risks of second-round effects and signaled readiness for tightening, with money markets now pricing roughly 75 basis points of cumulative hikes through year-end. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1 percent and resilient but cooling labor costs introduce some caution, yet the consensus for a modest June move remains anchored by forward-looking inflation concerns ahead of the next data releases.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$275,353समाप्ति तिथि
11 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds strongly favor a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate increase at the June 11, 2026, meeting, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent response to April euro-area HICP inflation rising to 3.0 percent amid energy price spikes from Middle East tensions. After holding the policy rate steady at 2.00 percent on April 30, policymakers highlighted risks of second-round effects and signaled readiness for tightening, with money markets now pricing roughly 75 basis points of cumulative hikes through year-end. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1 percent and resilient but cooling labor costs introduce some caution, yet the consensus for a modest June move remains anchored by forward-looking inflation concerns ahead of the next data releases.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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