Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया40 से कम 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$553,270 वॉल्यूम
$553,270 वॉल्यूम
17 अग, 2026
40 से कम
हाँ
40-64
नहीं
65-89
नहीं
90-114
नहीं
115-139
नहीं
140-164
नहीं
165-189
नहीं
190-214
नहीं
215-239
नहीं
240+
नहीं
40 से कम 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$553,270 वॉल्यूम
$553,270 वॉल्यूम
17 अग, 2026
40 से कम
$167,892 वॉल्यूम
हाँ
40-64
$113,852 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
65-89
$116,364 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
90-114
$69,008 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
115-139
$48,700 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
140-164
$16,923 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
165-189
$8,347 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
190-214
$3,264 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
215-239
$4,806 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
240+
$4,113 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$553,270समाप्ति तिथि
17 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: हाँ
कोई विवाद नहीं
अंतिम परिणाम: हाँ
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$553,270समाप्ति तिथि
17 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: हाँ
कोई विवाद नहीं
अंतिम परिणाम: हाँ
Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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