Polymarket traders price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus backed by real capital after the April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid an 8-4 hawkish split vote and Chair Powell's emphasis on persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict's oil price surge. Solid Q1 GDP growth at 2% annualized, stable unemployment near 4.4%, and elevated short-term inflation expectations per the New York Fed's May 7 survey reinforce a "wait-and-see" stance, with CME FedWatch aligning at over 90% for status quo. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the June FOMC; a sharp downside surprise in inflation or labor weakening could challenge this positioning toward modest 25 basis point cut odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 93%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 3.6%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 3.6%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 1.1%
$5,422,336 वॉल्यूम
$5,422,336 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
1%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
4%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
93%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
4%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 93%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 3.6%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 3.6%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 1.1%
$5,422,336 वॉल्यूम
$5,422,336 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
$520,411 वॉल्यूम
1%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
$403,995 वॉल्यूम
4%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$637,736 वॉल्यूम
93%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
$3,379,552 वॉल्यूम
4%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
$480,645 वॉल्यूम
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus backed by real capital after the April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid an 8-4 hawkish split vote and Chair Powell's emphasis on persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict's oil price surge. Solid Q1 GDP growth at 2% annualized, stable unemployment near 4.4%, and elevated short-term inflation expectations per the New York Fed's May 7 survey reinforce a "wait-and-see" stance, with CME FedWatch aligning at over 90% for status quo. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the June FOMC; a sharp downside surprise in inflation or labor weakening could challenge this positioning toward modest 25 basis point cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$5,422,336समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus backed by real capital after the April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid an 8-4 hawkish split vote and Chair Powell's emphasis on persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict's oil price surge. Solid Q1 GDP growth at 2% annualized, stable unemployment near 4.4%, and elevated short-term inflation expectations per the New York Fed's May 7 survey reinforce a "wait-and-see" stance, with CME FedWatch aligning at over 90% for status quo. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the June FOMC; a sharp downside surprise in inflation or labor weakening could challenge this positioning toward modest 25 basis point cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$5,422,336समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus backed by real capital after the April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid an 8-4 hawkish split vote and Chair Powell's emphasis on persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict's oil price surge. Solid Q1 GDP growth at 2% annualized, stable unemployment near 4.4%, and elevated short-term inflation expectations per the New York Fed's May 7 survey reinforce a "wait-and-see" stance, with CME FedWatch aligning at over 90% for status quo. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the June FOMC; a sharp downside surprise in inflation or labor weakening could challenge this positioning toward modest 25 basis point cut odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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