Market-implied odds assign a 93.5 percent probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, driven primarily by April’s hotter-than-expected CPI reading of 0.9 percent month-over-month and resilient labor-market data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. These releases have reinforced trader consensus that sticky inflation pressures, amplified by elevated energy prices, outweigh any near-term growth concerns and align with the Fed’s current neutral stance at the 3.50–3.75 percent target range. Recent central-bank communications continue to emphasize data dependence ahead of the June FOMC and upcoming May CPI release, leaving limited room for a surprise shift unless inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens materially in the coming weeks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 4.0%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 2.4%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती <1%
$5,604,327 वॉल्यूम
$5,604,327 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
1%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
2%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
4%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 4.0%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 2.4%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती <1%
$5,604,327 वॉल्यूम
$5,604,327 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
$554,886 वॉल्यूम
1%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
$427,021 वॉल्यूम
2%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$663,128 वॉल्यूम
94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
$3,408,309 वॉल्यूम
4%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
$550,984 वॉल्यूम
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds assign a 93.5 percent probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, driven primarily by April’s hotter-than-expected CPI reading of 0.9 percent month-over-month and resilient labor-market data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. These releases have reinforced trader consensus that sticky inflation pressures, amplified by elevated energy prices, outweigh any near-term growth concerns and align with the Fed’s current neutral stance at the 3.50–3.75 percent target range. Recent central-bank communications continue to emphasize data dependence ahead of the June FOMC and upcoming May CPI release, leaving limited room for a surprise shift unless inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens materially in the coming weeks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$5,604,327समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds assign a 93.5 percent probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, driven primarily by April’s hotter-than-expected CPI reading of 0.9 percent month-over-month and resilient labor-market data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. These releases have reinforced trader consensus that sticky inflation pressures, amplified by elevated energy prices, outweigh any near-term growth concerns and align with the Fed’s current neutral stance at the 3.50–3.75 percent target range. Recent central-bank communications continue to emphasize data dependence ahead of the June FOMC and upcoming May CPI release, leaving limited room for a surprise shift unless inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens materially in the coming weeks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$5,604,327समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds assign a 93.5 percent probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, driven primarily by April’s hotter-than-expected CPI reading of 0.9 percent month-over-month and resilient labor-market data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. These releases have reinforced trader consensus that sticky inflation pressures, amplified by elevated energy prices, outweigh any near-term growth concerns and align with the Fed’s current neutral stance at the 3.50–3.75 percent target range. Recent central-bank communications continue to emphasize data dependence ahead of the June FOMC and upcoming May CPI release, leaving limited room for a surprise shift unless inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens materially in the coming weeks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न