**Senate passage of a continuing resolution (CR) extending funding through mid-December has strongly shaped trader expectations of no federal appropriations lapse on October 1, 2026.** On August 8, the Senate approved H.R. 6500 by a 90-6 vote, providing stopgap funding at current levels to avert a shutdown at the start of FY2027. The House had earlier passed a similar measure funding operations through early December and is scheduled to reconcile differences after returning in September. President Trump has signaled support for signing the measure. This bipartisan stopgap follows the completion of most FY2026 appropriations earlier in the year, reducing immediate pressure and allowing time for full FY2027 bills. House leadership has indicated the chamber will act promptly to align the CR timelines, consistent with historical patterns where Congress routinely uses short-term extensions near fiscal year-ends to prevent lapses. While full-year appropriations negotiations continue—with several FY2027 bills advancing through House committees—the CR provides a clear procedural path that minimizes disruption risk before the October 1 deadline. Traders view the wide Senate margin and lack of major procedural or policy holdups as evidence that lawmakers will finalize the extension in time, aligning with the 89.5% implied probability against a lapse. Key upcoming catalysts include the House vote and any final negotiations on the CR duration or attached provisions.