The Florida 22nd congressional district Republican primary, set for August 18, 2026, features a fragmented field of self-funded candidates in a newly redrawn, Republican-leaning seat following recent redistricting. A late August poll showed Belinda Keiser narrowly ahead at 13.6%, followed closely by Casey Askar and Michael Carbonara in a statistical tie among likely voters, with over 40% undecided and lower support for David Burck and Terri Hasdorff. Recent Club for Growth endorsement of Carbonara and its ad campaign against Askar represent the main late-cycle catalyst, while the absence of a Trump endorsement or other unifying signals has kept probabilities clustered. Self-funding by the top three contenders has driven heavy spending on messaging around economic issues, immigration, and government spending, sustaining the tight race ahead of primary day. Separation could emerge from final voter turnout patterns, last-minute campaign developments, or the vote count itself.