Official forecasts for Buenos Aires on August 20 point to a daytime maximum near 14–16°C under broken cloud cover and light winds, consistent with mid-winter climatology where average highs range 15–17°C. Recent cool advection from passing fronts has kept overnight lows near 9–10°C, limiting daytime recovery despite modest northwesterly flow that could allow slight warming. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with no strong subtropical ridge or clear-sky insolation expected to push readings toward 18°C or higher. Trader focus on the 18°C outcome at 65% implied probability reflects this narrow uncertainty band around the seasonal baseline, while lower-probability tails for 13°C or below align with historical cold anomalies in the region. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional briefings tomorrow morning will refine the exact maximum before market resolution.