**Trader consensus strongly favors a 25°C high in Busan on October 3 due to official observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration confirming a daytime peak of 25.1°C under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions with easterly winds.** Multiple forecast models aligned on a maximum near 23–25°C given the autumnal pattern of moderate temperatures, high pressure around 1018–1020 hPa, and limited diurnal heating from cloud cover, matching historical October averages of roughly 23°C. With the day well advanced and no significant warming mechanisms active, the market-implied probability reflects near-certainty based on verified data rather than projections. A realistic challenge would require a late-day measurement revision or an unexpected brief warming spike exceeding 25°C, though current trends and model consensus make this improbable.