**Forecast models indicate Madrid's October 3 high will likely peak near 21–22°C amid persistent cloud cover and scattered convective activity.** Light easterly to northeasterly winds around 4–8 km/h, high humidity near 70–90%, and surface pressure near 1020–1024 hPa limit strong daytime heating, keeping afternoon temperatures from rising much above the morning readings of 18–20°C. Minor model differences in the timing and intensity of any brief clearing or isolated thunderstorms explain the tight market spread between 21°C and 22°C, with lower probabilities assigned to 20°C or 23°C if precipitation suppresses or enhances insolation. Official station observations will resolve the market once the daily maximum is recorded.