Latest high-resolution model consensus from ECMWF and GFS, reinforced by AEMET guidance, points to a strong subtropical ridge and southerly flow advecting very warm air into central Spain, driving the market's elevated 50% implied probability for a 41°C or higher peak on September 2. Surface observations and ensemble means currently favor afternoon maxima near 35–37°C under clear skies and light winds, well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 30°C for the date. AEMET's subseasonal outlook assigns high probability to above-normal temperatures across the peninsula through early September, though model spread leaves room for modest downward revisions in the final 48-hour runs. Traders are pricing the tail risk of extreme heat given the persistent anticyclonic pattern and minimal cloud cover expected.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2 सितंबर को मैड्रिड में सबसे ज़्यादा तापमान?
2 सितंबर को मैड्रिड में सबसे ज़्यादा तापमान?
37°C 46%
36°C 43%
41°C or higher 32%
38°C 20%
नया
नया
2 सित, 2026
31°C or below
4%
32°C
2%
33°C
3%
34°C
7%
35°C
9%
36°C
43%
37°C
46%
38°C
20%
39°C
7%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
32%
37°C 46%
36°C 43%
41°C or higher 32%
38°C 20%
नया
नया
2 सित, 2026
31°C or below
$5 वॉल्यूम
4%
32°C
$5 वॉल्यूम
2%
33°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
3%
34°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
7%
35°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
9%
36°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
43%
37°C
$44 वॉल्यूम
46%
38°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
20%
39°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
7%
40°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
1%
41°C or higher
$5 वॉल्यूम
32%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest high-resolution model consensus from ECMWF and GFS, reinforced by AEMET guidance, points to a strong subtropical ridge and southerly flow advecting very warm air into central Spain, driving the market's elevated 50% implied probability for a 41°C or higher peak on September 2. Surface observations and ensemble means currently favor afternoon maxima near 35–37°C under clear skies and light winds, well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 30°C for the date. AEMET's subseasonal outlook assigns high probability to above-normal temperatures across the peninsula through early September, though model spread leaves room for modest downward revisions in the final 48-hour runs. Traders are pricing the tail risk of extreme heat given the persistent anticyclonic pattern and minimal cloud cover expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$59समाप्ति तिथि
2 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest high-resolution model consensus from ECMWF and GFS, reinforced by AEMET guidance, points to a strong subtropical ridge and southerly flow advecting very warm air into central Spain, driving the market's elevated 50% implied probability for a 41°C or higher peak on September 2. Surface observations and ensemble means currently favor afternoon maxima near 35–37°C under clear skies and light winds, well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 30°C for the date. AEMET's subseasonal outlook assigns high probability to above-normal temperatures across the peninsula through early September, though model spread leaves room for modest downward revisions in the final 48-hour runs. Traders are pricing the tail risk of extreme heat given the persistent anticyclonic pattern and minimal cloud cover expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$59समाप्ति तिथि
2 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Latest high-resolution model consensus from ECMWF and GFS, reinforced by AEMET guidance, points to a strong subtropical ridge and southerly flow advecting very warm air into central Spain, driving the market's elevated 50% implied probability for a 41°C or higher peak on September 2. Surface observations and ensemble means currently favor afternoon maxima near 35–37°C under clear skies and light winds, well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 30°C for the date. AEMET's subseasonal outlook assigns high probability to above-normal temperatures across the peninsula through early September, though model spread leaves room for modest downward revisions in the final 48-hour runs. Traders are pricing the tail risk of extreme heat given the persistent anticyclonic pattern and minimal cloud cover expected.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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