Recent forecast model runs for São Paulo highlight a transitional spring pattern with Atlantic moisture and possible frontal influence keeping daytime highs moderate. Official guidance from sources like the Met Office and local models points to highs of 21–24°C on October 3 amid variable cloud cover and light showers, which limits peak solar heating compared to clearer climatological averages near 26–27°C. Trader consensus clusters around 21–23°C because these align with the latest ensemble outputs showing suppressed warming from easterly flow and overnight cooling, while lower or higher outcomes would require unexpected model shifts in timing or intensity of any rain. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and next model cycles will refine resolution thresholds.