Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and Environment Canada points to clearing skies and light northerly winds after a frontal system on October 2, supporting overnight radiative cooling and a minimum temperature near 8–11°C on October 3—close to the 1991–2020 average low of 10.3°C. Ensemble spreads create the near-even market-implied odds between sub-4°C extremes and 13°C+ readings, as small variations in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or cloud cover can shift the low by several degrees. Historical analogs show October 3 lows rarely fall below 3°C without strong high pressure and calm conditions, while 13°C+ would require warmer advection or delayed clearing, both low-probability outcomes in current guidance. Updated model runs and official Environment Canada forecasts through the weekend remain the key near-term catalysts for price movement.