**Recent KMA medium-range forecasts indicate a daily maximum of 33–34°C for the Seoul-Incheon area on August 10, with Incheon values slightly lower (around 32–33°C), aligning closely with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes.** This follows an intense early-August heatwave driven by overlapping high-pressure systems, clear skies, and strong insolation that produced 35°C+ readings earlier in the week; by the 10th, guidance shows modest moderation from increased cloud cover and a slight shift in steering flow. Key differentiating factors include daytime cloud fraction and boundary-layer mixing, which can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C, versus continued subsidence warming that would support 34°C. Short-term model updates and any revisions to precipitation timing remain the primary near-term catalysts likely to shift implied probabilities before resolution.