The overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability for “No” stems from the rock-solid scientific consensus and empirical evidence—centuries of astronomy, satellite imagery, physics experiments, and global navigation—that Earth is an oblate spheroid. This settled reality faces no meaningful challenge from recent cultural moments, viral memes, or pop-culture debates, which treat flat-Earth claims as fringe entertainment rather than serious contention. Trader confidence reflects the absence of any credible development that could alter the outcome. A realistic upset would require an unprecedented, verifiable revelation overturning all established science, an event with vanishingly low probability given the depth of supporting data.