**Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Liberman, is polling in a narrow band around 6-9 Knesset seats in recent September 2026 surveys, translating to roughly 5-7.5% of the vote ahead of the October 27 election.** This range keeps the leading market outcomes for 5-6%, 6-7%, and 7-8% closely bunched, reflecting modest poll-to-poll variation and the party’s stable but not surging support. Liberman has positioned the party as a secular, security-focused alternative that rejects coalitions with Netanyahu, Haredi parties, or Arab lists, while prioritizing a universal conscription law without exemptions or quotas and an official inquiry into October 7. The party recently finalized its slate, signed a surplus-vote agreement with Naftali Bennett’s Together list, and continues to draw from Russian-speaking and secular right-leaning voters amid a highly fragmented field. Recent polls show the party holding steady in the mid-single digits of seats without dramatic movement, even as larger parties like Yashar and Likud trade narrow leads and smaller lists hover near the 3.25% threshold. This stability, combined with typical late-campaign volatility in turnout and bloc dynamics, sustains tight trader pricing across the 5-8% bands. Further separation would likely require clearer signals on conscription negotiations, shifts in immigrant-community mobilization, or last-minute security developments that alter the party’s appeal relative to competitors.