Lai Ching-te began his four-year presidential term in May 2024, with the next scheduled election set for 2028 under Taiwan’s constitutional rules. Traders currently assign an 86.5 percent implied probability that he will still hold office on December 31, 2026, reflecting the high threshold for early removal through impeachment, resignation, or other extraordinary measures. The Democratic Progressive Party’s minority status in the legislature has prevented formation of the necessary supermajority for impeachment proceedings, while recent cross-strait policy statements and domestic legislative priorities have shown no disruption to normal governance. No major political events or institutional actions in the past thirty days have introduced new pathways for an earlier exit, reinforcing the market’s assessment of continuity through the end of next year.