The tight race for Lima mayor reflects a narrow 0.87-point victory by Renovación Popular over Avanza País in the October 4, 2026 municipal election, confirmed only after ONPE completed 100% of vote counts on November 14 amid disputes over observed ballots. Rafael López Aliaga, positioned as first regidor after the original candidate withdrew, leads his list but faces a JNE ruling barring him from assuming office due to the constitutional ban on immediate reelection, opening the path for the second regidora to take the role pending final proclamations. Other candidates trail far behind, with trader pricing showing low implied probabilities across named options amid uncertainty over succession, legal challenges, and official credentialing timelines.