Recent autumn rainfall patterns across Chongqing, driven by seasonal monsoon transitions, are moderating temperatures through increased cloud cover and precipitation, which limit both daytime heating and nighttime radiative cooling. Official guidance from regional models points to a September 20 minimum near 21–24°C amid scattered showers, with ensemble spreads reflecting uncertainty in exact rain timing and intensity that could nudge the low a degree or two in either direction. Chongqing’s hilly terrain further amplifies local variations in boundary-layer moisture and wind, creating the tight clustering around mid-20s outcomes while keeping extreme tails (below 18°C or at/above 28°C) at even implied odds. Updated forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve much of the remaining model disagreement before the market settles.