Recent forecasts for Guangzhou indicate a minimum temperature near 23–25°C on September 5, with model spreads arising from variable cloud cover, scattered showers, and weak northerly flow that limit nocturnal cooling. High humidity near 70–90% and light winds reduce radiative heat loss, while urban heat retention in the Pearl River Delta typically elevates overnight lows relative to rural baselines. Recent regional rainfall has moistened soils, further moderating temperature drops. With outcomes clustered between 22–25°C holding nearly equal implied probabilities, traders are weighting ensemble model divergence and the precise timing of any clearing skies, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.