Recent National Weather Service forecasts indicate a Monday night low near 80°F for Houston under mostly clear skies and light southeast winds, supporting the market's strong emphasis on 78-79°F. Persistent high pressure and above-normal dew points near 74°F have limited radiative cooling, consistent with recent overnight minima in the mid-to-upper 70s amid a warm September pattern. Model consensus shows minimal day-to-day variability through the period, with no frontal passages or increased cloud cover expected to alter temperatures substantially before the 21st. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of official guidance and climatological baselines around 77-81°F, while assigning lower probability to cooler outliers that would require unexpected boundary-layer changes. Updated NWS briefings and evening model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.