**Trader sentiment for Paris's minimum temperature on August 9 centers on 16–18°C outcomes, which together hold over 72% of the market-implied probability, reflecting consensus from short-range ensemble forecasts.** Recent model runs from agencies such as Météo-France and ECMWF show a transition to warmer, sunnier conditions after earlier heat and thunderstorms, with daytime highs climbing toward 28–30°C or higher. Overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light winds is expected to produce lows in the upper teens Celsius, consistent with climatological August norms of 15–18°C but tempered by the urban heat-island effect that often limits the depth of cooling in central Paris. Key differentiating variables include the exact timing of any residual cloud cover or weak frontal passage, which could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, versus stronger nocturnal cooling if high pressure dominates. Updated model guidance and official minimum-temperature observations issued on August 8–9 will provide the decisive inputs for market resolution.