Mike Bouchard leads trader consensus at 64.5% implied probability in the open MI-10 Republican primary, driven by a May 13 poll showing his 39% plurality among GOP voters amid high undecideds, bolstered by strong favorability, family name recognition from his father—the Oakland County sheriff—and robust Q1 fundraising exceeding $500,000, much from prior donor networks. Challenger Robert Lulgjuraj holds 39.3% on momentum from competitive early cash hauls but faces headwinds from a May 7 ballot eligibility challenge over residency claims. Lower-tier candidates Steven Elliott (17%), Casey Armitage (6%), and Justin Kirk (4.8%) trail per limited polling and resources, with the August 4 primary looming as undecideds and any legal resolutions could shift dynamics in this suburban Detroit battleground.