Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination amid escalating conflict with the United States and Israel. Since taking office, he has made no verified public appearances, issuing only written statements while reports cite possible injuries from prior airstrikes and reliance on intermediaries or AI-generated messaging for official communications. U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments indicate uncertainty over his exact location and physical condition, with some sources pointing to internal decision-making through handwritten notes and speculation that senior figures are evaluating exit options to Russia or other locations if the security situation deteriorates further. These developments, combined with ongoing wartime negotiations and regime stability concerns, form the core drivers of trader focus on whether he departs Iranian territory by the resolution date.