Anthropic’s rapid iteration on its Opus series, including the July 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 that quickly topped Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards with scores around 55–65% depending on the evaluation setup, has reinforced trader expectations that the next flagship model will prioritize frontier reasoning benchmarks like this expert-authored, 2,500-question multidisciplinary test. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini releases, which have narrowed gaps on HLE with tools and adaptive reasoning, makes early benchmark leadership a key differentiator for Anthropic’s positioning. Recent patterns show Anthropic frequently debuting or updating Opus models with strong initial HLE results, often leveraging expanded context windows, tool use, and higher reasoning effort modes. Upcoming catalysts include any fall 2026 developer conferences or earnings commentary that could signal the next Opus timeline, alongside potential saturation effects on HLE as top models cluster within a few percentage points.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्लाउड ओपस मॉडल: मानवता की अंतिम परीक्षा की शुरुआत?
क्लाउड ओपस मॉडल: मानवता की अंतिम परीक्षा की शुरुआत?
नया
31 दिस, 2026
45%+
94%
50%+
74%
55%+
70%
60%+
35%
$434 वॉल्यूम
45%+
$142 वॉल्यूम
94%
50%+
$61 वॉल्यूम
74%
55%+
$100 वॉल्यूम
70%
60%+
$131 वॉल्यूम
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s rapid iteration on its Opus series, including the July 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 that quickly topped Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards with scores around 55–65% depending on the evaluation setup, has reinforced trader expectations that the next flagship model will prioritize frontier reasoning benchmarks like this expert-authored, 2,500-question multidisciplinary test. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini releases, which have narrowed gaps on HLE with tools and adaptive reasoning, makes early benchmark leadership a key differentiator for Anthropic’s positioning. Recent patterns show Anthropic frequently debuting or updating Opus models with strong initial HLE results, often leveraging expanded context windows, tool use, and higher reasoning effort modes. Upcoming catalysts include any fall 2026 developer conferences or earnings commentary that could signal the next Opus timeline, alongside potential saturation effects on HLE as top models cluster within a few percentage points.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$434समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s rapid iteration on its Opus series, including the July 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 that quickly topped Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards with scores around 55–65% depending on the evaluation setup, has reinforced trader expectations that the next flagship model will prioritize frontier reasoning benchmarks like this expert-authored, 2,500-question multidisciplinary test. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini releases, which have narrowed gaps on HLE with tools and adaptive reasoning, makes early benchmark leadership a key differentiator for Anthropic’s positioning. Recent patterns show Anthropic frequently debuting or updating Opus models with strong initial HLE results, often leveraging expanded context windows, tool use, and higher reasoning effort modes. Upcoming catalysts include any fall 2026 developer conferences or earnings commentary that could signal the next Opus timeline, alongside potential saturation effects on HLE as top models cluster within a few percentage points.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
वॉल्यूम
$434समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s rapid iteration on its Opus series, including the July 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 that quickly topped Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards with scores around 55–65% depending on the evaluation setup, has reinforced trader expectations that the next flagship model will prioritize frontier reasoning benchmarks like this expert-authored, 2,500-question multidisciplinary test. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini releases, which have narrowed gaps on HLE with tools and adaptive reasoning, makes early benchmark leadership a key differentiator for Anthropic’s positioning. Recent patterns show Anthropic frequently debuting or updating Opus models with strong initial HLE results, often leveraging expanded context windows, tool use, and higher reasoning effort modes. Upcoming catalysts include any fall 2026 developer conferences or earnings commentary that could signal the next Opus timeline, alongside potential saturation effects on HLE as top models cluster within a few percentage points.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासंबंधित
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?
98%
क्या 2026 में ह्युमैनिटीज़ लास्ट एग्ज़ाम में ऐन्थ्रॉपिक क्लॉड मॉडल द्वारा प्राप्त किया गया सर्वोच्च स्कोर 55% या उससे अधिक होगा?
86%
हाँ
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?
91%
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न