Google's release cadence for Flash-Lite variants has slowed since the July 21, 2026 launch of Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite alongside 3.6 Flash, with subsequent updates focused on standard Flash models like 3.7 and 3.8 in August and September plus the Gemini 4 Argon frontier model in October. No official announcements, API updates, or credible reporting point to a 3.6+ Flash-Lite release in the immediate term, supporting the market's leading 48.5% probability on no launch by November 30. Traders appear to price in typical Google timelines for iterative efficiency-focused models, where high-throughput Lite variants trail general Flash refreshes, while the 24.3% chance assigned to November 10 reflects residual uncertainty around potential surprise drops or developer conference timing.