The tight first-round results on October 4 positioned Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) and Cadu de Lula (PT) for a runoff on October 25, with Allyson edging ahead by under one percentage point of valid votes amid nine candidates. Recent polling shows a technical tie in the runoff, including Quaest at 51-49 and Atlas at 51.1-48.9 for the two, reflecting regional divides, party machinery, and efforts by both to consolidate support from eliminated contenders such as Álvaro Dias. Trader consensus favoring Allyson at 66.5% versus 33.5% for Cadu appears driven by her stronger performance in some surveys and perceived momentum in key areas like Mossoró, though the race remains highly competitive with limited time for late shifts before voting concludes.