Trader consensus on the second-best AI lab by end of November reflects a tightly contested field where top labs sit within narrow performance margins on benchmarks. Recent September 2026 releases, including Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leading cumulative scores, Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live variants, OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, Meta's Muse Spark, and efficient multimodal updates from Alibaba's Qwen and DeepSeek, have reinforced convergence rather than separation. This dynamic, combined with Chinese labs narrowing gaps on cost and adoption metrics, drives the fragmented odds—with Google at 35.5% implied probability ahead of Meta and others—as traders weigh specific capabilities, release velocity, and use-case fit amid ongoing uncertainty in model rankings.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाGoogle 36%
Meta 22%
एंथ्रोपिक 13%
Z.ai 10.4%
नया
नया
30 नव, 2026
36%
Meta
22%
एंथ्रोपिक
13%
Z.ai
10%
अलीबाबा
10%
मूनशॉट
9%
SpaceXAI
8%
DeepSeek
7%
अमेज़न
7%
श्याओमी
5%
OpenAI
4%
टेनसेंट
4%
बाइटडांस
4%
एनवीडिया
4%
मिस्टरल
4%
Meituan
4%
StepFun
4%
Microsoft
4%
Thinky
4%
MiniMax
4%
Baidu
3%
Google 36%
Meta 22%
एंथ्रोपिक 13%
Z.ai 10.4%
नया
नया
30 नव, 2026
$143 वॉल्यूम
36%
Meta
$174 वॉल्यूम
22%
एंथ्रोपिक
$233 वॉल्यूम
13%
Z.ai
$70 वॉल्यूम
10%
अलीबाबा
$70 वॉल्यूम
10%
मूनशॉट
$70 वॉल्यूम
9%
SpaceXAI
$70 वॉल्यूम
8%
DeepSeek
$59 वॉल्यूम
7%
अमेज़न
$69 वॉल्यूम
7%
श्याओमी
$70 वॉल्यूम
5%
OpenAI
$80 वॉल्यूम
4%
टेनसेंट
$70 वॉल्यूम
4%
बाइटडांस
$80 वॉल्यूम
4%
एनवीडिया
$70 वॉल्यूम
4%
मिस्टरल
$59 वॉल्यूम
4%
Meituan
$70 वॉल्यूम
4%
StepFun
$59 वॉल्यूम
4%
Microsoft
$59 वॉल्यूम
4%
Thinky
$70 वॉल्यूम
4%
MiniMax
$70 वॉल्यूम
4%
Baidu
$70 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on the second-best AI lab by end of November reflects a tightly contested field where top labs sit within narrow performance margins on benchmarks. Recent September 2026 releases, including Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leading cumulative scores, Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live variants, OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, Meta's Muse Spark, and efficient multimodal updates from Alibaba's Qwen and DeepSeek, have reinforced convergence rather than separation. This dynamic, combined with Chinese labs narrowing gaps on cost and adoption metrics, drives the fragmented odds—with Google at 35.5% implied probability ahead of Meta and others—as traders weigh specific capabilities, release velocity, and use-case fit amid ongoing uncertainty in model rankings.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,789समाप्ति तिथि
1 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on the second-best AI lab by end of November reflects a tightly contested field where top labs sit within narrow performance margins on benchmarks. Recent September 2026 releases, including Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leading cumulative scores, Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live variants, OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, Meta's Muse Spark, and efficient multimodal updates from Alibaba's Qwen and DeepSeek, have reinforced convergence rather than separation. This dynamic, combined with Chinese labs narrowing gaps on cost and adoption metrics, drives the fragmented odds—with Google at 35.5% implied probability ahead of Meta and others—as traders weigh specific capabilities, release velocity, and use-case fit amid ongoing uncertainty in model rankings.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
वॉल्यूम
$1,789समाप्ति तिथि
1 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the second-best AI lab by end of November reflects a tightly contested field where top labs sit within narrow performance margins on benchmarks. Recent September 2026 releases, including Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leading cumulative scores, Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live variants, OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, Meta's Muse Spark, and efficient multimodal updates from Alibaba's Qwen and DeepSeek, have reinforced convergence rather than separation. This dynamic, combined with Chinese labs narrowing gaps on cost and adoption metrics, drives the fragmented odds—with Google at 35.5% implied probability ahead of Meta and others—as traders weigh specific capabilities, release velocity, and use-case fit amid ongoing uncertainty in model rankings.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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