Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February continue to suppress commercial traffic to single-digit daily transits versus the pre-crisis average of roughly 130 vessels. Recent May skirmishes, including US strikes on Iranian tankers and attacks on merchant ships, have sustained elevated war-risk insurance premiums and carrier suspensions by major lines. While a April ceasefire eased some restrictions, persistent Iranian control assertions and US blockades have kept over 1,500 vessels idled and more than 20,000 mariners stranded, with only selective transits permitted. Trader consensus pricing a 71.5% probability against normalization by end-June reflects these entrenched dynamics, though diplomatic overtures involving China and potential European naval involvement represent key swing factors ahead of June resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाजून के अंत तक होर्मुज़ जलडमरूमध्य का ट्रैफ़िक सामान्य हो जाएगा?
जून के अंत तक होर्मुज़ जलडमरूमध्य का ट्रैफ़िक सामान्य हो जाएगा?
हाँ
$6,460,568 वॉल्यूम
$6,460,568 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
हाँ
$6,460,568 वॉल्यूम
$6,460,568 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February continue to suppress commercial traffic to single-digit daily transits versus the pre-crisis average of roughly 130 vessels. Recent May skirmishes, including US strikes on Iranian tankers and attacks on merchant ships, have sustained elevated war-risk insurance premiums and carrier suspensions by major lines. While a April ceasefire eased some restrictions, persistent Iranian control assertions and US blockades have kept over 1,500 vessels idled and more than 20,000 mariners stranded, with only selective transits permitted. Trader consensus pricing a 71.5% probability against normalization by end-June reflects these entrenched dynamics, though diplomatic overtures involving China and potential European naval involvement represent key swing factors ahead of June resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$6,460,568समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February continue to suppress commercial traffic to single-digit daily transits versus the pre-crisis average of roughly 130 vessels. Recent May skirmishes, including US strikes on Iranian tankers and attacks on merchant ships, have sustained elevated war-risk insurance premiums and carrier suspensions by major lines. While a April ceasefire eased some restrictions, persistent Iranian control assertions and US blockades have kept over 1,500 vessels idled and more than 20,000 mariners stranded, with only selective transits permitted. Trader consensus pricing a 71.5% probability against normalization by end-June reflects these entrenched dynamics, though diplomatic overtures involving China and potential European naval involvement represent key swing factors ahead of June resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$6,461,650समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February continue to suppress commercial traffic to single-digit daily transits versus the pre-crisis average of roughly 130 vessels. Recent May skirmishes, including US strikes on Iranian tankers and attacks on merchant ships, have sustained elevated war-risk insurance premiums and carrier suspensions by major lines. While a April ceasefire eased some restrictions, persistent Iranian control assertions and US blockades have kept over 1,500 vessels idled and more than 20,000 mariners stranded, with only selective transits permitted. Trader consensus pricing a 71.5% probability against normalization by end-June reflects these entrenched dynamics, though diplomatic overtures involving China and potential European naval involvement represent key swing factors ahead of June resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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