The entrenched US-Iran conflict, marked by Iranian restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz since early March 2026, has sustained commercial shipping traffic at roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels through mid-May. Iranian forces have enforced controls via vessel threats, selective attacks, and reported mining risks, while US naval countermeasures and blockades have further limited transits, with recent 24-hour counts showing only eight to 17 vessels against a normal average of 60. Diplomatic signals, including extended ceasefires and bilateral discussions, have produced no verified reopening or de-escalation sufficient to restore normal flows by the May 15 deadline. Trader consensus at 99.9 percent for "No" reflects this persistent stalemate, though a sudden bilateral agreement or coordinated naval clearance operation before final resolution could still alter the outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
$17,473,162 वॉल्यूम
$17,473,162 वॉल्यूम
15 मई, 2026
$17,473,162 वॉल्यूम
$17,473,162 वॉल्यूम
15 मई, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The entrenched US-Iran conflict, marked by Iranian restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz since early March 2026, has sustained commercial shipping traffic at roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels through mid-May. Iranian forces have enforced controls via vessel threats, selective attacks, and reported mining risks, while US naval countermeasures and blockades have further limited transits, with recent 24-hour counts showing only eight to 17 vessels against a normal average of 60. Diplomatic signals, including extended ceasefires and bilateral discussions, have produced no verified reopening or de-escalation sufficient to restore normal flows by the May 15 deadline. Trader consensus at 99.9 percent for "No" reflects this persistent stalemate, though a sudden bilateral agreement or coordinated naval clearance operation before final resolution could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$17,473,162समाप्ति तिथि
15 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The entrenched US-Iran conflict, marked by Iranian restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz since early March 2026, has sustained commercial shipping traffic at roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels through mid-May. Iranian forces have enforced controls via vessel threats, selective attacks, and reported mining risks, while US naval countermeasures and blockades have further limited transits, with recent 24-hour counts showing only eight to 17 vessels against a normal average of 60. Diplomatic signals, including extended ceasefires and bilateral discussions, have produced no verified reopening or de-escalation sufficient to restore normal flows by the May 15 deadline. Trader consensus at 99.9 percent for "No" reflects this persistent stalemate, though a sudden bilateral agreement or coordinated naval clearance operation before final resolution could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$17,473,162समाप्ति तिथि
15 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The entrenched US-Iran conflict, marked by Iranian restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz since early March 2026, has sustained commercial shipping traffic at roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels through mid-May. Iranian forces have enforced controls via vessel threats, selective attacks, and reported mining risks, while US naval countermeasures and blockades have further limited transits, with recent 24-hour counts showing only eight to 17 vessels against a normal average of 60. Diplomatic signals, including extended ceasefires and bilateral discussions, have produced no verified reopening or de-escalation sufficient to restore normal flows by the May 15 deadline. Trader consensus at 99.9 percent for "No" reflects this persistent stalemate, though a sudden bilateral agreement or coordinated naval clearance operation before final resolution could still alter the outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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