Persistent low shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, running at roughly 5 percent of pre-conflict averages amid the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran that began February 28, 2026, underpin the 71.5 percent market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by June 30. Iranian restrictions, U.S. naval enforcement, and repeated vessel incidents have kept daily transits in the single digits through early May, stranding over 1,500 ships and elevating insurance costs for energy cargoes. With no confirmed ceasefire or de-escalation timeline, traders are weighting the risk of prolonged geopolitical friction over any near-term reopening, while monitoring potential catalysts such as further diplomatic signals or shifts in blockade enforcement that could alter the path toward normalized tanker and bulk-carrier flows.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाजून के अंत तक होर्मुज़ जलडमरूमध्य का ट्रैफ़िक सामान्य हो जाएगा?
जून के अंत तक होर्मुज़ जलडमरूमध्य का ट्रैफ़िक सामान्य हो जाएगा?
हाँ
$6,485,955 वॉल्यूम
$6,485,955 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
हाँ
$6,485,955 वॉल्यूम
$6,485,955 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent low shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, running at roughly 5 percent of pre-conflict averages amid the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran that began February 28, 2026, underpin the 71.5 percent market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by June 30. Iranian restrictions, U.S. naval enforcement, and repeated vessel incidents have kept daily transits in the single digits through early May, stranding over 1,500 ships and elevating insurance costs for energy cargoes. With no confirmed ceasefire or de-escalation timeline, traders are weighting the risk of prolonged geopolitical friction over any near-term reopening, while monitoring potential catalysts such as further diplomatic signals or shifts in blockade enforcement that could alter the path toward normalized tanker and bulk-carrier flows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$6,485,955समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent low shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, running at roughly 5 percent of pre-conflict averages amid the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran that began February 28, 2026, underpin the 71.5 percent market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by June 30. Iranian restrictions, U.S. naval enforcement, and repeated vessel incidents have kept daily transits in the single digits through early May, stranding over 1,500 ships and elevating insurance costs for energy cargoes. With no confirmed ceasefire or de-escalation timeline, traders are weighting the risk of prolonged geopolitical friction over any near-term reopening, while monitoring potential catalysts such as further diplomatic signals or shifts in blockade enforcement that could alter the path toward normalized tanker and bulk-carrier flows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$6,486,088समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent low shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, running at roughly 5 percent of pre-conflict averages amid the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran that began February 28, 2026, underpin the 71.5 percent market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by June 30. Iranian restrictions, U.S. naval enforcement, and repeated vessel incidents have kept daily transits in the single digits through early May, stranding over 1,500 ships and elevating insurance costs for energy cargoes. With no confirmed ceasefire or de-escalation timeline, traders are weighting the risk of prolonged geopolitical friction over any near-term reopening, while monitoring potential catalysts such as further diplomatic signals or shifts in blockade enforcement that could alter the path toward normalized tanker and bulk-carrier flows.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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