Ruling party officials and parliamentary leaders have signaled interest in replacing Turkey’s 1982 constitution, yet the governing bloc holds roughly 321 seats and requires at least 360 votes to advance amendments to a referendum. Recent statements from the justice minister and presidential advisers have instead prioritized an Article 116 early-election route for 2028 that could extend the incumbent’s eligibility without immediate constitutional overhaul. Ongoing PKK peace talks and internal AKP drafting commissions continue, but no cross-party consensus or floor action has materialized in 2026. Traders therefore assign high probability to no substantive movement on a new charter this calendar year, though broader political realignments remain possible before December 31.