Recent official forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility and Bank of England place UK real GDP growth near 1.25% and 1.1% respectively for 2026, aligning with the 86% market-implied probability for the 1-2% range. Stronger-than-expected Q1 and Q2 2026 quarterly expansions of 0.6% and 0.5% have supported resilience, even as higher global energy prices and elevated Bank Rate expectations—now around 4%—weigh on household spending and investment. Independent forecaster medians cluster around 1.2%, reflecting subdued but positive momentum amid tighter financial conditions. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming monthly GDP releases and any shifts in inflation or labor market data that could alter the growth trajectory before year-end resolution.