Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, driven by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow surging to 4.0% annualized for Q2 as of May 14—up from 3.7%—following Q1's solid 2.0% advance estimate that rebounded from Q4 2025's 0.5%. This positions >2.5% as the frontrunner amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. However, a 30.4% chance of sub-0.5% contraction reflects risks from April CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—steady 4.3% unemployment, and Fed funds rate holding near 3.6%, with traders eyeing fiscal uncertainties and policy tightening ahead of June FOMC. The 2.0–2.5% band at 22.5% aligns with economist forecasts around 2.2%.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में जीडीपी की वृद्धि
2026 में जीडीपी की वृद्धि
<0.5% 20.7%
2.0–2.5% 19%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
>2.5% 16%
$28,075 वॉल्यूम
$28,075 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
<0.5%
21%
0.5–1.0%
13%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
24%
>2.5%
33%
<0.5% 20.7%
2.0–2.5% 19%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
>2.5% 16%
$28,075 वॉल्यूम
$28,075 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
<0.5%
$3,879 वॉल्यूम
21%
0.5–1.0%
$15,278 वॉल्यूम
13%
1.0–1.5%
$1,535 वॉल्यूम
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,504 वॉल्यूम
17%
2.0–2.5%
$1,819 वॉल्यूम
24%
>2.5%
$4,061 वॉल्यूम
33%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, driven by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow surging to 4.0% annualized for Q2 as of May 14—up from 3.7%—following Q1's solid 2.0% advance estimate that rebounded from Q4 2025's 0.5%. This positions >2.5% as the frontrunner amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. However, a 30.4% chance of sub-0.5% contraction reflects risks from April CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—steady 4.3% unemployment, and Fed funds rate holding near 3.6%, with traders eyeing fiscal uncertainties and policy tightening ahead of June FOMC. The 2.0–2.5% band at 22.5% aligns with economist forecasts around 2.2%.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$28,075समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, driven by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow surging to 4.0% annualized for Q2 as of May 14—up from 3.7%—following Q1's solid 2.0% advance estimate that rebounded from Q4 2025's 0.5%. This positions >2.5% as the frontrunner amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. However, a 30.4% chance of sub-0.5% contraction reflects risks from April CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—steady 4.3% unemployment, and Fed funds rate holding near 3.6%, with traders eyeing fiscal uncertainties and policy tightening ahead of June FOMC. The 2.0–2.5% band at 22.5% aligns with economist forecasts around 2.2%.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$28,075समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, driven by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow surging to 4.0% annualized for Q2 as of May 14—up from 3.7%—following Q1's solid 2.0% advance estimate that rebounded from Q4 2025's 0.5%. This positions >2.5% as the frontrunner amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. However, a 30.4% chance of sub-0.5% contraction reflects risks from April CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—steady 4.3% unemployment, and Fed funds rate holding near 3.6%, with traders eyeing fiscal uncertainties and policy tightening ahead of June FOMC. The 2.0–2.5% band at 22.5% aligns with economist forecasts around 2.2%.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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