Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against negative U.S. real GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 annualized expansion of 2.0%—a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace—fueled by business investment gains despite sticky inflation. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, updated May 8, nowcasts Q2 growth at a robust 3.7%, reinforcing expectations of sustained above-trend activity amid stable unemployment around 4.6% and professional forecaster surveys projecting full-year growth near 2.5%. Heightened recession odds have plunged to 23% on related markets, though traders eye May CPI data (due June 10) and Q2 GDP release for potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
हाँ
$26,309 वॉल्यूम
$26,309 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
हाँ
$26,309 वॉल्यूम
$26,309 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against negative U.S. real GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 annualized expansion of 2.0%—a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace—fueled by business investment gains despite sticky inflation. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, updated May 8, nowcasts Q2 growth at a robust 3.7%, reinforcing expectations of sustained above-trend activity amid stable unemployment around 4.6% and professional forecaster surveys projecting full-year growth near 2.5%. Heightened recession odds have plunged to 23% on related markets, though traders eye May CPI data (due June 10) and Q2 GDP release for potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$26,309समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against negative U.S. real GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 annualized expansion of 2.0%—a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace—fueled by business investment gains despite sticky inflation. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, updated May 8, nowcasts Q2 growth at a robust 3.7%, reinforcing expectations of sustained above-trend activity amid stable unemployment around 4.6% and professional forecaster surveys projecting full-year growth near 2.5%. Heightened recession odds have plunged to 23% on related markets, though traders eye May CPI data (due June 10) and Q2 GDP release for potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$26,309समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against negative U.S. real GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 annualized expansion of 2.0%—a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace—fueled by business investment gains despite sticky inflation. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, updated May 8, nowcasts Q2 growth at a robust 3.7%, reinforcing expectations of sustained above-trend activity amid stable unemployment around 4.6% and professional forecaster surveys projecting full-year growth near 2.5%. Heightened recession odds have plunged to 23% on related markets, though traders eye May CPI data (due June 10) and Q2 GDP release for potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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