Robust US economic data underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 2.2% annualized rate per the BEA’s third estimate, with Q3 nowcasts near 5% and professional forecasts centering on 2.0–2.5% annual growth driven by AI-related capital spending and steady consumer outlays. Elevated but moderating inflation and a balanced labor market with unemployment near 4.2% further support expansion, consistent with FOMC projections and OECD upgrades. While tail risks such as sharper energy-price spikes or policy shocks could weigh on activity, current momentum and forward indicators leave little scope for a full-year contraction.