**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" (85.5% implied probability) because the NRC's licensing process for entirely new reactors remains lengthy despite recent reforms, making a full operating or combined license unlikely before year-end 2026.** The Nuclear Regulatory Commission finalized its first major new reactor framework since 1989—Part 53, a risk-informed, technology-inclusive pathway—effective in late April 2026. Complementary steps include a generic environmental impact statement and proposals to streamline microreactor reviews and early site work. These changes aim to shorten timelines and reduce costs for advanced designs like small modular reactors and non-light-water technologies. However, actual approvals in 2026 have centered on license renewals for existing plants, one restart (Palisades), and a construction permit for TerraPower’s Natrium sodium-cooled reactor in Wyoming—the first such permit for a commercial advanced reactor in a decade, issued in March after an expedited review. Full operating licenses typically follow construction and additional safety reviews, often spanning 16–48 months from application even under the updated rules. With the Part 53 framework still new and no pending applications positioned for completion in the remaining months of 2026, traders view a new-reactor license grant this year as improbable. Upcoming catalysts such as further rule finalizations or additional construction-permit decisions could influence sentiment, but they are unlikely to deliver a full license before December 31.