Ursula von der Leyen’s secure position as European Commission President rests on her July 2024 re-election by the European Parliament for a second five-year mandate running through 2029, backed by stable centrist majorities in the EPP and allied groups. Recent months have shown continued leadership through public addresses on European defense independence, single-market reforms, and geopolitical strategy at forums including Davos and the EU Ambassadors Conference, alongside active diplomatic engagement on Ukraine support and trade. While isolated criticism from opposition factions and some member states over regulatory style has surfaced, these have not produced credible no-confidence challenges or procedural moves capable of forcing an early exit. Traders therefore assign only a modest 16.5 percent probability of her departure in 2026, reflecting the structural barriers of the Commission’s fixed term and the absence of any near-term political catalyst that could alter the current consensus.