Emmanuel Macron’s second presidential term ends in May 2027, leaving roughly six months in office as of late October 2026. Recent nationwide protests over living costs escalated into riots with looting and thousands of arrests, exposing fiscal constraints, a fractured parliament from the 2024 snap election, and low approval ratings. Opponents have called for an early departure, yet French constitutional rules make removal or forced resignation difficult absent incapacity or impeachment proceedings. Macron has continued official duties, including security meetings and international travel, while rejecting emergency measures. The low implied probability on related prediction markets reflects the absence of credible triggers for departure before year-end, despite ongoing social tensions ahead of the 2027 vote.