Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+10 Cook PVI and Donald Trump’s 14.5-point margin there in 2024. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who received endorsements from Trump and House leadership and advanced with 34.9% of the vote ahead of Democrat John Duresky at 30.8%. This matchup, combined with historical voting patterns and limited Democratic performance in the central Washington counties, underpins trader consensus on a Republican hold. A major scandal, health issue, or unusually strong Democratic turnout wave could still shift the November 3 general election outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाWA -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
WA -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$51,004 वॉल्यूम
$51,004 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
91%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
8%
$51,004 वॉल्यूम
$51,004 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$28,146 वॉल्यूम
91%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$22,858 वॉल्यूम
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+10 Cook PVI and Donald Trump’s 14.5-point margin there in 2024. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who received endorsements from Trump and House leadership and advanced with 34.9% of the vote ahead of Democrat John Duresky at 30.8%. This matchup, combined with historical voting patterns and limited Democratic performance in the central Washington counties, underpins trader consensus on a Republican hold. A major scandal, health issue, or unusually strong Democratic turnout wave could still shift the November 3 general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$51,004समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+10 Cook PVI and Donald Trump’s 14.5-point margin there in 2024. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who received endorsements from Trump and House leadership and advanced with 34.9% of the vote ahead of Democrat John Duresky at 30.8%. This matchup, combined with historical voting patterns and limited Democratic performance in the central Washington counties, underpins trader consensus on a Republican hold. A major scandal, health issue, or unusually strong Democratic turnout wave could still shift the November 3 general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$51,004समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+10 Cook PVI and Donald Trump’s 14.5-point margin there in 2024. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who received endorsements from Trump and House leadership and advanced with 34.9% of the vote ahead of Democrat John Duresky at 30.8%. This matchup, combined with historical voting patterns and limited Democratic performance in the central Washington counties, underpins trader consensus on a Republican hold. A major scandal, health issue, or unusually strong Democratic turnout wave could still shift the November 3 general election outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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