Trader consensus strongly favors Anthropic at an 86% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its demonstrated large language model capabilities and consistent benchmark leadership in recent releases. This positioning reflects verified progress in model performance metrics relative to competitors, while Google, OpenAI, and others remain at single-digit odds amid slower visible updates or capability gaps. Upcoming product announcements, developer conferences, and third-party evaluations over the next two months represent key swing factors that could alter these market-implied odds in the final stretch.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAnthropic 86%
Google 5.7%
OpenAI 5.5%
SpaceXAI 4.2%
नया
नया
31 अक्टू, 2026
Anthropic
86%
6%
OpenAI
6%
SpaceXAI
4%
Meituan
2%
Microsoft
2%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Thinky
1%
Mistral
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 5.7%
OpenAI 5.5%
SpaceXAI 4.2%
नया
नया
31 अक्टू, 2026
Anthropic
$4,861 वॉल्यूम
86%
$175 वॉल्यूम
6%
OpenAI
$192 वॉल्यूम
6%
SpaceXAI
$301 वॉल्यूम
4%
Meituan
$217 वॉल्यूम
2%
Microsoft
$172 वॉल्यूम
2%
Moonshot
$249 वॉल्यूम
1%
Nvidia
$196 वॉल्यूम
1%
Meta
$182 वॉल्यूम
1%
DeepSeek
$187 वॉल्यूम
1%
Alibaba
$204 वॉल्यूम
1%
Z.ai
$209 वॉल्यूम
1%
Amazon
$193 वॉल्यूम
1%
Thinky
$166 वॉल्यूम
1%
Mistral
$186 वॉल्यूम
1%
ByteDance
$199 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Baidu
$219 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Xiaomi
$199 वॉल्यूम
<1%
MiniMax
$199 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Tencent
$199 वॉल्यूम
<1%
StepFun
$187 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus strongly favors Anthropic at an 86% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its demonstrated large language model capabilities and consistent benchmark leadership in recent releases. This positioning reflects verified progress in model performance metrics relative to competitors, while Google, OpenAI, and others remain at single-digit odds amid slower visible updates or capability gaps. Upcoming product announcements, developer conferences, and third-party evaluations over the next two months represent key swing factors that could alter these market-implied odds in the final stretch.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$8,891समाप्ति तिथि
31 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus strongly favors Anthropic at an 86% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its demonstrated large language model capabilities and consistent benchmark leadership in recent releases. This positioning reflects verified progress in model performance metrics relative to competitors, while Google, OpenAI, and others remain at single-digit odds amid slower visible updates or capability gaps. Upcoming product announcements, developer conferences, and third-party evaluations over the next two months represent key swing factors that could alter these market-implied odds in the final stretch.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
वॉल्यूम
$8,891समाप्ति तिथि
31 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors Anthropic at an 86% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its demonstrated large language model capabilities and consistent benchmark leadership in recent releases. This positioning reflects verified progress in model performance metrics relative to competitors, while Google, OpenAI, and others remain at single-digit odds amid slower visible updates or capability gaps. Upcoming product announcements, developer conferences, and third-party evaluations over the next two months represent key swing factors that could alter these market-implied odds in the final stretch.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न