The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation, nationwide protests, and direct military conflict underpins trader expectations that it will not collapse before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026, yet succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly via the Assembly of Experts, with the IRGC consolidating control alongside figures like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Security forces crushed historic protests spanning late 2025 into early 2026 across all provinces through lethal force and internet blackouts, preventing sustained defections or coordinated uprisings. Despite economic strain, proxy losses, and degraded military capabilities, institutional continuity and hardline cohesion have held, consistent with the 93.5% implied probability on "No."
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
7% संभावना
$24,828,724 वॉल्यूम
$24,828,724 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
हाँ
7% संभावना
$24,828,724 वॉल्यूम
$24,828,724 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation, nationwide protests, and direct military conflict underpins trader expectations that it will not collapse before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026, yet succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly via the Assembly of Experts, with the IRGC consolidating control alongside figures like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Security forces crushed historic protests spanning late 2025 into early 2026 across all provinces through lethal force and internet blackouts, preventing sustained defections or coordinated uprisings. Despite economic strain, proxy losses, and degraded military capabilities, institutional continuity and hardline cohesion have held, consistent with the 93.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$24,828,724समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation, nationwide protests, and direct military conflict underpins trader expectations that it will not collapse before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026, yet succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly via the Assembly of Experts, with the IRGC consolidating control alongside figures like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Security forces crushed historic protests spanning late 2025 into early 2026 across all provinces through lethal force and internet blackouts, preventing sustained defections or coordinated uprisings. Despite economic strain, proxy losses, and degraded military capabilities, institutional continuity and hardline cohesion have held, consistent with the 93.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$24,828,724समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation, nationwide protests, and direct military conflict underpins trader expectations that it will not collapse before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026, yet succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly via the Assembly of Experts, with the IRGC consolidating control alongside figures like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Security forces crushed historic protests spanning late 2025 into early 2026 across all provinces through lethal force and internet blackouts, preventing sustained defections or coordinated uprisings. Despite economic strain, proxy losses, and degraded military capabilities, institutional continuity and hardline cohesion have held, consistent with the 93.5% implied probability on "No."
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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