Recent U.S. military actions in Latin America have centered on targeted operations rather than sustained ground occupations, reinforcing trader expectations that no full-scale invasion will occur this year. The January 2026 apprehension of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro involved brief airstrikes and a special forces raid without establishing territorial control or prolonged presence. Subsequent efforts have included maritime interdictions against suspected drug vessels, joint strikes with Ecuadorian forces against designated groups, and sanctions pressure on Cuba, all framed by administration officials around border security, counternarcotics, and limiting external influence. With no announced plans for large-scale troop deployments or occupation of any qualifying country and half the year elapsed without escalation, these measured steps have anchored the current implied probability on no invasion.