The January 2026 U.S. special operation against Venezuela captured Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and apprehension in Caracas but produced no sustained territorial control or occupation, leading Polymarket traders to treat it as falling short of an invasion threshold. Subsequent diplomatic normalization, embassy reopenings, oil agreements, and sanctions relief have reinforced low odds for a full military offensive through late 2026. Key variables include the interim government's engagement with opposition figures, bipartisan U.S. Senate pressure for elections, and Washington’s emphasis on deportations plus post-earthquake humanitarian aid rather than regime enforcement. Any escalation would require new signals crossing into sustained control over Venezuelan territory, an outcome traders currently assign minimal probability given the absence of buildup or policy shifts.