The January 2026 U.S. raid capturing Nicolás Maduro and installing Delcy Rodríguez as interim president shifted dynamics away from large-scale military action toward targeted enforcement and economic leverage, including oil revenue controls and counternarcotics cooperation. Subsequent Senate efforts to constrain further unilateral force, combined with reopened diplomatic channels and joint operations against groups like Tren de Aragua, have reinforced trader views that full-scale invasion remains unlikely absent major reversals such as breakdown in the interim government or renewed threats to U.S. interests. Scheduled congressional reviews, potential multi-party talks, and ongoing naval presence in the Caribbean continue to shape assessments of escalation risks through late 2026.