The ongoing ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, in place since April 7, 2026, and extended indefinitely by President Trump, remains the dominant factor keeping trader odds low for any formal congressional declaration of war. Hostilities that began with large-scale strikes on February 28 have seen no exchange of fire since early April, prompting the administration to notify Congress that the conflict has terminated under War Powers Resolution timelines. Lawmakers allowed the 60-day authorization deadline to lapse without action in early May. With diplomatic negotiations ongoing from prior rounds and a naval blockade of Iranian ports continuing amid fragile de-escalation, any path to a formal declaration would require new escalation or a shift in congressional priorities before year-end.